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当前光伏产业链市场走势和技术发展预判

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年01月24日 00:59:57
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(原)(标)(题)(:当)(前)(光)(伏)(产)(业)(链)(市)(场)(走)(势)(和)(技)(术)(发)(展)(预)(判)(
本)(月)(初)(,就)(2017年)(光)(伏)(技)(术)(发)(展)(,单)(多)(晶)(之)(争)(等)(热)(点)(问)(题)(,保)(利)(协)(鑫)(能)(源)(控)(股)(有)(限)(公)(司)(副)(总)(裁)(吕)(锦)(标)(接)(受)(分)(布)(式)(光)(伏)(杂)(志)(访)(谈)(,就)(产)(业)(链)(的)(市)(场)(走)(势)(和)(技)(术)(发)(展)(诸)(多)(问)(题)(做)(出)(解)(读)(。采)(访)(全)(文)(刊)(登)(在)(杂)(志)(。
问)(:最)(近)(围)(绕)(单)(多)(晶)(的)(争)(论)(比)(较)(多)(,协)(鑫)(做)(为)(多)(晶)(派)(,怎)(么)(看)(?
吕)(锦)(标)(:
说)(协)(鑫)(是)(多)(晶)(派)(,主)(要)(因)(为)(我)(们)(保)(利)(协)(鑫)(这)(家)(公)(司)(做)(了)(大)(量)(多)(晶)(硅)(片)(,去)(年)(的)(产)(销)(量)(是)(17.5吉)(瓦)(,主)(要)(是)(多)(晶)(。
其)(实)(目)(前)(国)(内)(主)(流)(的)(光)(伏)(企)(业)(,数)(得)(出)(来)(的)(都)(是)(做)(多)(晶)(,主)(要)(产)(品)(是)(多)(晶)(,也)(做)(少)(量)(单)(晶)(。中)(国)(的)(企)(业)(十)(年)(前)(进)(入)(光)(伏)(开)(始)(就)(感)(受)(到)(多)(晶)(的)(发)(展)(潜)(力)(,包)(括)(我)(们)(保)(利)(协)(鑫)(,十)(一)(年)(前)(做)(多)(晶)(硅)(原)(料)(,09年)(才)(进)(入)(硅)(片)(,当)(时)(规)(划)(的)(技)(术)(路)(线)(就)(是)(单)(多)(晶)(7:3的)(,单)(晶)(是)(7成)(大)(头)(,但)(在)(产)(能)(扩)(张)(过)(程)(中)(不)(断)(改)(,现)(在)(形)(成)(近)(20吉)(瓦)(中)(单)(晶)(只)(有)(1个)(多)(吉)(瓦)(,主)(要)(都)(是)(多)(晶)(。这)(个)(所)(谓)(的)(派)(别)(问)(题)(不)(是)(主)(动)(站)(队)(的)(问)(题)(。我)(们)(的)(感)(受)(是)(晶)(硅)(技)(术)(产)(业)(发)(展)(和)(光)(伏)(市)(场)(选)(择)(共)(同)(驱)(动)(的)(结)(果)(。
就)(技)(术)(流)(派)(而)(言)(,我)(们)(认)(为)(没)(有)(什)(么)(高)(下)(之)(分)(。我)(看)(到)(很)(多)(单)(多)(晶)(技)(术)(指)(标)(的)(比)(拼)(,效)(率)(啊)(,衰)(减)(啊)(,各)(执)(一)(词)(。还)(有)(很)(多)(对)(比)(试)(验)(,十)(年)(二)(十)(年)(的)(数)(据)(,看)(谁)(多)(发)(电)(。其)(实)(这)(些)(都)(不)(重)(要)(,重)(要)(的)(是)(市)(场)(的)(真)(实)(选)(择)(,你)(的)(组)(件)(卖)(什)(么)(价)(,品)(质)(稳)(定)(性)(如)(何)(,我)(特)(别)(同)(意)(有)(一)(个)(观)(点)(,单)(多)(晶)(主)(要)(看)(性)(价)(比)(,看)(25年)(发)(电)(周)(期)(的)(投)(资)(度)(电)(成)(本)(。以)(前)(说)(就)(看)(效)(率)(高)(,效)(率)(高)(就)(是)(高)(端)(技)(术)(,实)(际)(还)(是)(要)(看)(成)(本)(,卫)(星)(上)(电)(池)(效)(率)(高)(达)(30%以)(上)(,但)(成)(本)(奇)(高)(,那)(是)(为)(了)(科)(研)(可)(以)(不)(惜)(代)(价)(,而)(光)(伏)(发)(电)(最)(终)(要)(平)(价)(进)(入)(百)(姓)(生)(活)(的)(。目)(前)(大)(家)(的)(共)(识)(是)(,不)(管)(单)(晶)(多)(晶)(,关)(键)(看)(组)(件)(的)(品)(牌)(,品)(质)(,看)(你)(的)(成)(本)(控)(制)(水)(平)(和)(提)(供)(的)(组)(件)(价)(格)(,你)(的)(价)(格)(决)(定)(了)(在)(发)(电)(量)(相)(同)(的)(情)(况)(下)(电)(站)(投)(资)(成)(本)(高)(低)(,你)(的)(组)(件)(一)(条)(链)(成)(本)(控)(制)(决)(定)(了)(你)(是)(否)(能)(持)(续)(提)(供)(性)(价)(比)(高)(的)(光)(伏)(发)(电)(设)(备)(。
问)(:你)(怎)(么)(看)(单)(多)(晶)(这)(样)(的)(口)(水)(战)(?
吕)(锦)(标)(:
“口)(水)(战)(”给)(人)(感)(觉)(不)(好)(,但)(也)(有)(存)(在)(的)(必)(要)(,首)(先)(是)(在)(国)(内)(的)(光)(伏)(产)(业)(,单)(晶)(很)(弱)(小)(,通)(过)(宣)(传)(,得)(到)(国)(家)(政)(策)(的)(扶)(持)(,对)(一)(些)(行)(业)(之)(外)(,或)(传)(统)(能)(源)(领)(域)(进)(入)(光)(伏)(的)(投)(资)(者)(,通)(过)(“效)(率)(高)(就)(是)(高)(技)(术)(”这)(样)(的)(简)(单)(逻)(辑)(来)(选)(择)(单)(晶)(,在)(多)(晶)(几)(乎)(一)(统)(天)(下)(的)(业)(态)(下)(,对)(保)(持)(技)(术)(生)(态)(肯)(定)(有)(好)(处)(的)(。同)(时)(单)(晶)(发)(展)(了)(也)(会)(促)(进)(多)(晶)(,比)(如)(16年)(单)(晶)(全)(改)(金)(刚)(线)(切)(割)(大)(幅)(降)(本)(了)(,在)(一)(片)(“单)(晶)(取)(代)(多)(晶)(”的)(呼)(声)(中)(,多)(晶)(也)(不)(能)(固)(守)(传)(统)(的)(砂)(线)(切)(割)(。
当)(然)(,我)(们)(主)(张)(技)(术)(方)(面)(还)(是)(要)(科)(学)(严)(谨)(,实)(事)(求)(是)(,至)(少)(坚)(持)(一)(条)(:“假)(话)(一)(句)(不)(讲)(,真)(话)(可)(以)(不)(全)(讲)(”。不)(要)(根)(据)(站)(队)(,通)(过)(夸)(大)(宣)(传)(误)(导)(政)(策)(,误)(导)(投)(资)(,那)(会)(带)(来)(资)(源)(浪)(费)(。另)(外)(双)(方)(的)(争)(论)(,即)(使)(是)(口)(水)(战)(,只)(要)(不)(是)(人)(身)(攻)(击)(,都)(应)(该)(公)(开)(公)(平)(论)(争)(,不)(要)(利)(用)(媒)(体)(关)(系)(采)(取)(删)(贴)(这)(样)(的)(极)(端)(手)(段)(。
问)(:可)(能)(主)(要)(是)(“口)(水)(战)(”打)(多)(了)(,大)(家)(一)(看)(到)(就)(烦)(?
吕)(锦)(标)(:
确)(实)(烦)(。但)(我)(同)(意)(一)(个)(观)(点)(,“口)(水)(战)(”总)(比)(删)(贴)(好)(,要)(相)(信)(大)(众)(的)(判)(断)(力)(。
另)(外)(我)(多)(说)(一)(句)(,之)(所)(以)(“口)(水)(战)(”满)(天)(飞)(,自)(媒)(体)(在)(推)(波)(助)(澜)(占)(很)(大)(因)(素)(。做)(为)(传)(媒)(,看)(到)(争)(端)(多)(少)(会)(小)(兴)(奋)(,这)(我)(理)(解)(,但)(做)(为)(传)(媒)(,包)(括)(自)(媒)(体)(,还)(是)(要)(有)(起)(码)(的)(职)(业)(操)(守)(,可)(以)(有)(自)(己)(的)(观)(点)(,但)(不)(要)(为)(了)(媒)(体)(关)(系)(选)(择)(站)(队)(,甚)(至)(充)(当)(打)(手)(,包)(括)(一)(些)(正)(规)(的)(行)(情)(分)(析)(也)(标)(题)(党)(横)(行)(,信)(息)(不)(对)(称)(会)(误)(导)(各)(方)(。
问)(:最)(近)(单)(晶)(很)(火)(,价)(格)(坚)(挺)(,都)(缺)(货)(了)(,而)(多)(晶)(好)(象)(价)(格)(已)(经)(往)(下)(走)(了)(,你)(怎)(么)(看)(?
吕)(锦)(标)(:
光)(伏)(产)(品)(价)(格)(跌)(是)(常)(态)(,这)(十)(几)(年)(下)(来)(,包)(括)(往)(后)(,直)(到)(光)(伏)(平)(价)(上)(网)(到)(来)(,这)(个)(产)(业)(都)(是)(不)(断)(进)(步)(中)(降)(低)(成)(本)(,价)(格)(总)(体)(下)(跌)(,整)(体)(产)(能)(总)(是)(过)(剩)(中)(淘)(汰)(落)(后)(,当)(然)(年)(度)(内)(往)(往)(出)(现)(季)(度)(性)(甚)(至)(月)(度)(性)(上)(下)(波)(动)(。现)(在)(市)(场)(上)(还)(是)(多)(晶)(占)(大)(头)(,彭)(博)(新)(能)(源)(的)(数)(据)(还)(是)(多)(晶)(占)(70%以)(上)(的)(多)(数)(,所)(以)(多)(晶)(跌)(是)(跟)(着)(大)(势)(走)(,很)(正)(常)(的)(情)(况)(。
单)(多)(晶)(硅)(片)(都)(是)(年)(初)(开)(始)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(的)(,多)(晶)(硅)(片)(在)(上)(个)(月)(下)(旬)(开)(始)(跌)(,目)(前)(跌)(破)(5元)(,直)(奔)(4元)(了)(,但)(我)(们)(看)(到)(单)(晶)(硅)(片)(没)(跌)(,报)(价)(都)(在)(6元)(以)(上)(,主)(要)(是)(因)(为)(单)(晶)(组)(件)(价)(格)(坚)(挺)(造)(成)(的)(,多)(晶)(组)(件)(已)(经)(在)(2.8元)(/瓦)(左)(右)(了)(,单)(晶)(组)(件)(还)(在)(3.3-3.4,传)(导)(到)(电)(池)(、硅)(片)(,就)(降)(价)(。
问)(:我)(们)(看)(到)(一)(个)(材)(料)(,按)(专)(业)(测)(算)(,目)(前)(的)(技)(术)(水)(平)(指)(标)(,单)(多)(晶)(在)(硅)(片)(端)(的)(性)(价)(比)(差)(距)(在)(0.6元)(/片)(,组)(件)(端)(的)(性)(价)(比)(差)(距)(在)(0.1元)(/瓦)(以)(内)(。为)(什)(么)(会)(这)(样)(?
吕)(锦)(标)(:
单)(多)(晶)(的)(成)(本)(差)(距)(主)(要)(在)(硅)(片)(端)(,其)(他)(原)(料)(端)(原)(生)(多)(晶)(硅)(、电)(池)(端)(、组)(件)(端)(,都)(差)(别)(不)(大)(,硅)(片)(端)(的)(差)(距)(主)(要)(是)(长)(晶)(,多)(晶)(是)(铸)(锭)(,上)(千)(公)(斤)(的)(单)(炉)(装)(料)(量)(,大)(锭)(切)(小)(锭)(,G8的)(炉)(可)(以)(切)(8X8=64个)(锭)(,产)(量)(高)(,单)(位)(成)(本)(低)(;单)(晶)(是)(拉)(晶)(,一)(两)(百)(公)(斤)(一)(炉)(,圆)(柱)(状)(晶)(棒)(只)(能)(切)(一)(个)(长)(锭)(,最)(长)(四)(米)(。即)(使)(现)(在)(一)(炉)(拉)(多)(根)(,也)(主)(要)(是)(节)(约)(了)(坩)(埚)(底)(部)(熔)(凝)(需)(要)(的)(热)(量)(。在)(切)(割)(都)(是)(同)(样)(技)(术)(情)(况)(下)(,单)(多)(晶)(的)(成)(本)(差)(距)(就)(是)(长)(晶)(成)(本)(差)(距)(。
性)(价)(比)(差)(距)(讲)(的)(是)(成)(本)(,但)(市)(场)(价)(格)(差)(还)(是)(受)(供)(求)(关)(系)(影)(响)(。为)(什)(么)(在)(光)(伏)(安)(装)(市)(场)(总)(体)(增)(长)(不)(如)(光)(伏)(组)(件)(产)(量)(增)(长)(的)(情)(况)(下)(,做)(为)(主)(要)(交)(易)(额)(的)(多)(晶)(组)(件)(价)(格)(下)(滑)(了)(,单)(晶)(却)(价)(格)(坚)(挺)(,主)(要)(原)(因)(是)(16年)(投)(标)(的)(“光)(伏)(领)(跑)(者)(”项)(目)(大)(比)(例)(的)(技)(术)(方)(案)(是)(单)(晶)(组)(件)(,承)(诺)(在)(6.30之)(前)(并)(网)(,而)(市)(场)(上)(可)(供)(应)(的)(单)(晶)(组)(件)(屈)(指)(可)(数)(。
问)(:听)(说)(这)(部)(分)(数)(量)(也)(不)(大)(?
吕)(锦)(标)(:
是)(不)(大)(,5个)(吉)(瓦)(不)(到)(,但)(是)(单)(晶)(产)(能)(基)(数)(小)(,而)(且)(要)(在)(短)(时)(间)(释)(放)(。主)(要)(的)(瓶)(颈)(在)(硅)(片)(,做)(单)(晶)(的)(企)(业)(少)(,硅)(片)(基)(本)(上)(内)(部)(消)(化)(,象)(晶)(澳)(,单)(晶)(硅)(片)(起)(家)(的)(,做)(了)(电)(池)(组)(件)(,十)(几)(年)(来)(都)(是)(一)(体)(化)(供)(单)(晶)(组)(件)(。也)(有)(企)(业)(是)(主)(要)(做)(单)(晶)(硅)(片)(,但)(组)(件)(一)(紧)(张)(,更)(是)(选)(择)(大)(部)(分)(一)(体)(化)(加)(工)(成)(电)(池)(组)(件)(,电)(池)(可)(以)(代)(工)(,多)(改)(单)(工)(艺)(好)(调)(整)(,组)(件)(封)(装)(更)(是)(无)(所)(谓)(单)(多)(晶)(,所)(以)(现)(在)(硅)(片)(价)(格)(高)(,但)(也)(没)(什)(么)(交)(易)(量)(。听)(说)(原)(来)(结)(成)(的)(供)(货)(联)(盟)(也)(自)(然)(瓦)(解)(了)(,就)(是)(承)(诺)(单)(晶)(硅)(片)(卖)(价)(随)(着)(多)(晶)(调)(整)(,始)(终)(保)(持)(0.6元)(左)(右)(的)(差)(价)(,现)(在)(的)(差)(价)(最)(大)(到)(1.7元)(/片)(了)(。
问)(:不)(是)(都)(在)(扩)(产)(吗)(?听)(说)(协)(鑫)(就)(10吉)(瓦)(!
吕)(锦)(标)(:
都)(是)(宣)(称)(的)(,一)(方)(面)(现)(在)(做)(光)(伏)(制)(造)(利)(润)(都)(不)(高)(了)(,现)(金)(为)(王)(是)(第)(一)(位)(;另)(一)(方)(面)(是)(铸)(锭)(类)(单)(晶)(的)(产)(业)(化)(进)(展)(,投)(直)(拉)(单)(晶)(还)(是)(观)(望)(的)(多)(。都)(在)(传)(协)(鑫)(要)(上)(10吉)(瓦)(单)(晶)(,造)(势)(的)(人)(想)(说)(,你)(看)(多)(晶)(老)(大)(都)(转)(单)(晶)(了)(,你)(还)(犹)(豫)(啥)(!其)(实)(我)(们)(那)(里)(现)(在)(建)(成)(的)(只)(有)(1个)(多)(吉)(瓦)(。而)(且)(直)(拉)(工)(艺)(主)(要)(瞄)(准)(N型)(单)(晶)(,这)(种)(工)(艺)(转)(化)(率)(比)(现)(在)(的)(P型)(单)(晶)(高)(多)(了)(,目)(前)(问)(题)(是)(成)(本)(还)(下)(不)(来)(。
问)(:单)(晶)(那)(么)(贵)(还)(缺)(货)(,不)(会)(改)(采)(购)(多)(晶)(吗)(?价)(格)(那)(么)(低)(,效)(率)(也)(够)(高)(。
吕)(锦)(标)(:
确)(实)(都)(在)(改)(,原)(来)(设)(计)(成)(单)(晶)(的)(都)(在)(改)(。上)(周)(碰)(到)(一)(电)(站)(投)(资)(商)(,说)(去)(年)(那)(时)(候)(单)(晶)(厂)(家)(把)(组)(件)(价)(格)(定)(得)(跟)(多)(晶)(差)(不)(多)(,只)(高)(个)(0.05元)(/瓦)(,不)(到)(0.1元)(,他)(就)(跟)(一)(单)(晶)(厂)(家)(订)(好)(3.15元)(的)(单)(晶)(,但)(对)(方)(还)(说)(供)(货)(紧)(,他)(果)(断)(改)(,60片)(275瓦)(的)(多)(晶)(组)(件)(也)(就)(2.8元)(/瓦)(,还)(一)(线)(大)(厂)(的)(。当)(然)(,领)(跑)(者)(项)(目)(都)(是)(投)(标)(的)(,设)(计)(了)(单)(晶)(,中)(标)(后)(技)(术)(方)(案)(不)(能)(改)(。这)(部)(分)(是)(单)(晶)(政)(策)(性)(刚)(性)(市)(场)(。
问)(:市)(场)(上)(单)(晶)(组)(件)(少)(,为)(什)(么)(领)(跑)(者)(项)(目)(设)(计)(了)(这)(么)(多)(单)(晶)(?
吕)(锦)(标)(:
这)(是)(2016年)(定)(标)(准)(时)(失)(误)(了)(,当)(时)(设)(定)(单)(晶)(、多)(晶)(和)(薄)(膜)(电)(池)(的)(领)(跑)(标)(准)(,参)(照)(了)(工)(信)(部)(2015年)(制)(定)(的)(《光)(伏)(制)(造)(行)(业)(规)(范)(条)(件)(》,就)(在)(单)(多)(晶)(电)(池)(组)(件)(16%和)(15.5%的)(基)(础)(上)(各)(加)(一)(个)(点)(,制)(定)(了)(单)(晶)(电)(池)(组)(件)(效)(率)(17%,多)(晶)(电)(池)(组)(件)(效)(率)(16.5%的)(领)(跑)(者)(标)(准)(。其)(实)(工)(信)(部)(的)(准)(入)(条)(件)(是)(门)(槛)(标)(准)(,为)(了)(扶)(持)(弱)(小)(的)(单)(晶)(,给)(了)(一)(个)(较)(低)(的)(门)(槛)(,而)(多)(晶)(占)(市)(场)(80-90%以)(上)(的)(多)(数)(,希)(望)(通)(过)(提)(高)(门)(槛)(淘)(汰)(一)(部)(分)(低)(效)(率)(的)(小)(企)(业)(。而)(能)(源)(局)(主)(导)(的)(技)(术)(领)(跑)(者)(应)(该)(是)(另)(一)(种)(思)(路)(,希)(望)(针)(对)(不)(同)(的)(技)(术)(,确)(定)(一)(个)(同)(类)(技)(术)(中)(只)(有)(少)(部)(分)(先)(进)(企)(业)(的)(先)(进)(产)(能)(才)(能)(达)(到)(,而)(促)(进)(其)(他)(产)(能)(技)(术)(升)(级)(。当)(时)(确)(定)(16.5%多)(晶)(组)(件)(标)(准)(时)(,对)(应)(的)(电)(池)(转)(换)(效)(率)(需)(要)(达)(到)(18.5%,全)(国)(只)(有)(十)(家)(左)(右)(的)(少)(数)(企)(业)(的)(少)(数)(产)(能)(可)(以)(达)(到)(,其)(他)(大)(部)(分)(多)(晶)(产)(能)(都)(达)(不)(到)(,而)(单)(晶)(组)(件)(17%的)(标)(准)(基)(本)(上)(现)(成)(的)(企)(业)(都)(可)(以)(达)(到)(,所)(以)(造)(成)(单)(晶)(产)(能)(无)(须)(投)(入)(技)(术)(升)(级)(,以)(现)(有)(产)(品)(投)(标)(即)(轻)(松)(获)(得)(领)(跑)(者)(项)(目)(的)(技)(术)(得)(分)(。造)(成)(为)(单)(晶)(量)(身)(定)(制)(的)(背)(钝)(化)(PERC电)(池)(技)(术)(产)(能)(闲)(置)(,2016年)(15吉)(瓦)(的)(PERC产)(能)(,只)(有)(3吉)(瓦)(产)(量)(。
问)(:现)(在)(情)(况)(怎)(么)(样)(?
吕)(锦)(标)(:
现)(在)(国)(家)(能)(源)(局)(准)(备)(修)(订)(,把)(单)(多)(晶)(标)(准)(拉)(开)(,定)(出)(来)(的)(标)(准)(对)(于)(单)(多)(晶)(而)(言)(都)(得)(是)(少)(数)(达)(标)(,其)(他)(努)(力)(投)(入)(技)(术)(升)(级)(达)(标)(,比)(如)(现)(有)(的)(单)(晶)(产)(能)(,不)(上)(PERC的)(肯)(定)(不)(能)(达)(标)(。多)(晶)(也)(一)(样)(,只)(有)(少)(数)(产)(能)(达)(标)(,带)(动)(其)(他)(产)(能)(也)(发)(展)(PERC电)(池)(技)(术)(。
转)(自)(“光)(伏)(头)(条)(”返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
声)(明)(:该)(文)(观)(点)(仅)(代)(表)(作)(者)(本)(人)(,搜)(狐)(号)(系)(信)(息)(发)(布)(平)(台)(,搜)(狐)(仅)(提)(供)(信)(息)(存)(储)(空)(间)(服)(务)(。
阅)(读)(()
)


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